Germany's industrial output beat analyst expectations in August, even after a separate report had shown a sharp drop in industrial orders.
The rise in output suggests German factories partly offset the weak demand seen in order data. It is an early sign that the industrial sector of the eurozone's largest economy may be stabilising after months of decline.
For beginners Industrial output is a key gauge of the real economy: its trend feeds into GDP and manufacturing employment, which is why investors watch it to judge the health of major export economies.
IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said artificial intelligence is lifting growth hopes while also pushing up inflation and bond yields, just as public debt levels have risen.
She said the combination of an energy shock, rising debt burdens and AI-related risks threatens the durability of global economic growth.
For beginners Technological breakthroughs like AI boost productivity and investment, but they also raise demand for energy and capital, which can push prices and borrowing costs higher — that is why central banks and governments watch these side effects closely.
The US Treasury sold $58 billion of 3-year notes at a high yield of 4.932%, as government bond yields keep climbing.
The bid-to-cover ratio came in at 2.62 times, roughly in line with the average of recent auctions.
For beginners Yields at government bond auctions show how cheaply or expensively a state can borrow; higher yields mean costlier debt service and set a benchmark for other interest rates across the economy.
The spread between French and German 10-year bond yields surged above 150 basis points, the widest since the euro-area debt crisis, pushing French borrowing costs close to 5%.
Investors are worried about France's budget deficit, debt trajectory and political fragmentation ahead of the 2027 presidential election. The euro came under renewed pressure from these risks, though EUR/USD rebounded slightly after the French government announced steps to cut the deficit, narrowing the OAT-Bund spread.
For beginners The spread between two countries' bonds is the extra yield investors demand for taking on more risk; a widening spread signals markets see the higher-yielding country (here, France) as a riskier borrower, which can weigh on its currency.
The US trade deficit widened to $105.6 billion in August, above the expected $102.0 billion, up from a revised $92.8 billion in July.
Exports rose 1.4% to $315.2 billion, while imports jumped 4.3% to $420.8 billion. The goods deficit widened to $136.6 billion, while the services surplus stood at $31.0 billion.
For beginners The trade balance shows the difference between what a country sells abroad and buys from abroad; a growing deficit means more money is leaving the country for imports than it earns from exports, which can pressure the currency and feeds into GDP calculations.
Canada's trade surplus widened to C$4.2 billion in August, well above the C$1.55 billion expected, as exports rose and imports fell.
Exports rose 2.5% on the month while imports fell 2%, marking the country's sixth consecutive monthly trade surplus.
For beginners A trade balance shows the gap between what a country sells abroad and buys from abroad: a sustained surplus signals strong foreign demand for its goods and typically supports the national currency.
New industrial orders in Germany dropped sharply due to the absence of large contracts.
The decline is tied specifically to the lack of big one-off deals that had supported the data in previous months. Industrial orders are considered a leading indicator of future factory output.
For beginners Industrial orders show how much work factories will have in coming months, so investors watch them as an early signal of changes in economic growth.
A World Bank economist said South Asia's growth remains firm, though an energy shock and weather pose risks.
No further details were given, but the region is seen as maintaining its growth pace despite external threats.
For beginners Regional growth is sensitive to energy prices and harvests: an oil price spike or bad weather can slow growth even when the underlying data look solid.
Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers warned that rising global government bond yields will pressure the country's federal budget.
Higher debt-servicing costs could constrain government spending in the mid-year budget update. A widening deficit could in turn add supply pressure on longer-dated Australian government bonds amid the Reserve Bank of Australia's hiking cycle.
For beginners Bond yield is the interest rate a government pays on its debt: the higher it is, the more expensive it becomes to service that debt, leaving less room for other budget spending.
Australia's consumer sentiment index fell sharply after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates, while Westpac expects another hike in November.
Despite the slump in sentiment, Westpac believes inflation risk still outweighs demand weakness, which could keep the RBA from pausing its hiking cycle.
For beginners Raising the key interest rate makes borrowing more expensive and cools consumer demand, so sentiment surveys are one gauge central banks use to judge the effect of decisions they have already made.
France and Germany proposed a new EU mechanism for rapid response to trade disputes.
Details of the proposal have not yet been disclosed.
For beginners Trade tools allow blocs like the EU to respond faster to tariffs or restrictions from other countries, affecting goods flows and company costs.
Jair Bolsonaro outperformed polling expectations in the first round of Brazil's presidential vote and will now face incumbent president Lula in a runoff.
The result makes the outcome of the runoff less predictable.
For beginners Political uncertainty in major emerging economies tends to raise volatility in local currencies and stock markets, as investors price in different scenarios for future economic policy.
The ISM services index fell to 54.9, below the 55.2 expected, while S&P Global's composite index hit 58.4 — the fastest growth in overall business activity in more than five years.
In the ISM survey, the employment component rose to 50.1 from 47.8, while new export orders fell to 46.9 from 56.3. S&P Global's services PMI came in at 58.8, the strongest business activity growth since July 2021.
For beginners A PMI is a business activity index based on surveys of purchasing managers: a reading above 50 signals expansion, below 50 signals contraction. Different survey methodologies can produce diverging signals about the same economy.
The Sentix index, which tracks eurozone investor sentiment, fell to 2.7 in October from 5.1 the month before, missing expectations of 5.0.
The drop followed a more-than-four-year high reached in September.
For beginners Survey-based confidence indices gauge investors' expectations about the economy and often foreshadow shifts in actual growth and investment data.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Ukraine will strike Russian oil refineries in response to Moscow's "new doctrine" of airstrikes.
At the same time, Kyiv is scrambling for money to keep fighting as Russian strikes batter Ukraine's economy.
For beginners A prolonged war typically raises government spending and erodes the tax base, forcing a country to seek outside financing — one channel through which geopolitics affects public finances.
After September's nonfarm payrolls — the number of new jobs outside farming — rose by just 29,000, well below expectations, the 10-year Treasury yield briefly fell to a low of 5.16%.
Despite that reaction, traders are still watching the bond market as the main indicator to track this week.
For beginners Bond yield is the rate a government pays investors for borrowed money; it rises or falls with inflation expectations and central-bank policy, affecting borrowing costs across the economy.
The Fed's September meeting minutes are expected to offer clues on future rate moves, as the odds of an October hike fade.
The minutes combine earlier guidance about one more rate hike with recent softer economic data.
For beginners A central bank's meeting minutes are a detailed record of the discussion that markets study to gauge how policymakers view inflation and employment and where rates might head next.
Japan's services PMI — a survey-based index of business activity — eased to 51.3, as hiring picked up and price pressures stayed intense.
Output price inflation is near record highs, hiring is rising and order backlogs are building — signs of capacity pressure. S&P Global explicitly flags October as a possible month for a rate hike.
For beginners A PMI reading above 50 signals expanding business activity; combined with high price inflation and rising hiring, it typically pushes a central bank toward tighter policy — meaning higher interest rates.
Brazilians went to the polls in a high-stakes, polarized presidential election.
The vote is taking place amid sharp rivalry between candidates and close attention from investors.
For beginners Election results can shift market expectations about a country's fiscal and economic policy, which shows up in currency moves and stock prices.
The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its September meeting this week, which could give markets clues about future rate decisions.
Analysts note the real fed-funds rate is now surprisingly low, which could shape the debate among policymakers.
For beginners Fed meeting minutes are a detailed record of the discussion that investors use to gauge how officials view inflation and growth risks and to form expectations about rates.
